Census data model: Nearly 50K Tennessee households may not have access to air conditioning

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Increasing extreme heat events have more of a risk for at-risk populations as the number of hospital beds in Tennessee decline. (Photo: Getty Images)

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that 49,722 Tennessee households, or about 2% of the state's population, do not have access to any kind of air conditioning. (Photo: Getty Images)

As high temperatures and humidity spiked “feels like” temperatures to more than 110 degrees in some areas of Tennessee over the last week, the National Weather Service recommended Tennesseans stay indoors, hydrate and use air conditioning as “fans may not be adequate.”

But for an estimated 49,722 Tennessee households, air conditioning is not an option. Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau in May estimated that about 2% of state households have no access to any kind of air conditioning. 

Christina Joann Rainey, a 31-year-old single mother in Carroll County, told the Lookout that temperatures inside her home reached 82 degrees Tuesday. Rainey has paid to repair the 16-year-old home air conditioning system in the house she inherited from her grandparents multiple times, but it’s now beyond saving. She can’t afford the estimated $7,500 price tag to replace it.

As the National Weather Service warned of extreme and major heat risk, Rainey began calling any agencies and organizations she could think of to seek help. But she said she struggled to find programs available in her area that she is eligible for, other than loan opportunities that she believes will be too financially burdensome in the long run.

Rainey and her 15-year-old daughter sought relief by sitting in the car or traveling to a nearby Dollar General to get lemonade and temporarily cool off. But Rainey said she worries about being away from home for too long because of her Australian Shepherd and 13-year-old cat. Rainey has been trying to keep them cool with cooling pads.

“I’m scared that if I leave, they could have heat stroke,” she said.

On Wednesday, a local air conditioning technician loaned Rainey a window unit, providing some relief. 

“I’m so thankful for that, because he didn’t have to do that, and that was free of charge,” she said. “I don’t know what I would have done otherwise.”

Resources and support programs vary at local level

Resources available to people without access to air conditioning vary at the local level. On Thursday, as temperatures hovered in the 90s, the Tennessee Emergency Management Authority’s shelter map showed nine cooling centers open across the state, mostly concentrated in Middle Tennessee. The Hospitality Hub of Memphis announced that its cooling center would be open from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. that day.

Programs providing free fans, air conditioning window units, or other weatherization assistance also vary. In Davidson County, the Metro Action Commission’s Summer Cooling program provides free fans or air conditioning units to eligible elderly county residents, families with children under age 6, and disabled residents with medical conditions affected by extreme heat from May 1 through August 31. 

The Tennessee Valley Authority’s Home Uplift program helps eligible households make their homes more energy efficient by sealing gaps, insulating ductwork and replacing aging air conditioners. Participants in the program must meet income qualifications, live in a single-family home that meets certain requirements, and be a customer of a local power company that participates in the program. 

When Rainey checked her eligibility for the Home Uplift program, she received a message that TVA is not accepting applications in her area.

A spokesperson for the Tennessee Department of Health recommended reaching out to county governments and local emergency management agencies for resources.

A deeper look at the U.S. Census Bureau’s experimental data

The U.S. Census Bureau released its experimental Local Air Conditioning Estimates dataset in response to requests for more detailed information on air conditioning access as an indicator of heat vulnerability, according to the bureau’s website.

The dataset includes information from American Housing Surveys from 2019 through 2023, along with data from the American Community Survey from the same period.

Air conditioning access is not directly measured in the American Community Survey. While the American Housing Survey does ask if a home has an air conditioning unit, this survey wasn’t designed to be used at a granular geographical level. The U.S. Census Bureau used a machine learning model and the American Housing Survey data to “determine if a household in the ACS potentially lacks an air conditioning unit,” according to the bureau’s methodology. 

The margin of error for Tennessee’s estimated 49,772 households without air conditioning is plus or minus 481 households.

This data may also fail to capture the circumstances of people like Rainey, who may have had working air conditioning at the time that data was collected, but no longer do. It also does not consider other factors that might limit access to air conditioning, like the cost burden of operating window air conditioning units. 

Rainey said her mother is in a similar situation — her home air conditioning is no longer in working order and uses window units sparingly because of the electricity cost.

“Before it got this hot, she was trying to avoid (using) it because it gets so bad on electricity in Milan … but I think this last week or so, she’s had to use it because she didn’t have a choice. She was using fans and doing everything she could,” Rainey said.

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Courtesy of Tennessee Lookout

Environment, extreme heat, National Weather Service, Tennessee Department of Health, U.S. Census Bureau